Conventional wisdom has long assumed that November’s two biggest releases would be Sony Pictures’ “2012″ and Summit Entertainment’s “The Twilight Saga: New Moon.” In theory, both pictures seemingly should be successful as they have little audience cross over. As the second installment in the “Twilight” series, “New Moon” should dominate with women and younger women especially. “2012″ is an old fashioned disaster movie that should be a four quadrant sell (i.e., movie for everyone) that drives older audiences, teens and regular moviegoers. Based on the latest pre-release polling, however, one of the films is in much better shape to dominate the box office than the other.

A little over three weeks before opening, “New Moon” came on industry tracking today with a vengeance showing interest in the Stephanie Meyer’s vampire franchise hasn’t cooled whatsoever. With huge awareness already, the film has a staggering 40% plus first choice with younger women and over 15% with older women. What’s truly astounding is that older men (typically over 25) have almost as much interest as older women in seeing the sequel. For what is seen as a typically female subject matter, that’s a remarkable level of interest. To say that “Twilight’s” opening weekend number last year of $69.6 million will be surpassed by “New Moon” beginning on Nov. 20 is something of an understatement. And its domestic gross of $191 million? Don’t be surprised if it quickly gets shattered.

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